Lebanon is intensifying international and Arab diplomatic efforts to avert a security vacuum in the south when the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), tasked by the UN Security Council with implementing Resolution 1701, expires at the end of the year.
President Joseph Aoun raised the issue at a summit with French President Emmanuel Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah II on the sidelines of a preparatory conference in Paris to support the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces.
The matter is also expected to top Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s agenda during his meetings in New York, where he is leading Lebanon’s delegation to the 81st UN General Assembly, and later in Washington, where he is due to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Lebanon is placing importance on peace talks in New York and on a meeting with Rubio to prevent a security vacuum in the south if UNIFIL withdraws, amid a lack of agreement on an international body to replace it.
UNIFIL commander Major General Diodato Abagnara warned of the issue, questioning which authority would take over from the mission, saying that “more than half of our positions in southern Lebanon are under Israeli control.”
A ministerial source said Aoun raised concerns about a potential vacuum during his talks with Macron and King Abdullah.
The source told Asharq Al-Awsat that both leaders shared those concerns and promised to contact US President Donald Trump to seek his approval, at Aoun’s request, for extending UNIFIL’s mandate by six months to a year.
Such an extension, the source added, could help activate the “framework agreement” and expand “pilot zones” where the Lebanese Army could deploy with UNIFIL support.
Macron and King Abdullah are also counting on Trump’s commitment to help Lebanon implement the agreement under UNIFIL supervision or that of any UN force that might replace it, according to the source.
European Union countries understand Lebanon’s concerns and are working to formulate a proposal before the end of October that would preserve an international presence in the south to accompany a phased Israeli withdrawal if efforts to persuade Trump to extend UNIFIL’s mandate fail.
The source stressed that any replacement should operate under UN auspices rather than leave the international presence limited to the US-dominated “Mechanism” committee, from which Washington has excluded France.
A European official was quoted as saying that Lebanon should not be left alone in calling for an international force to replace UNIFIL and that European countries would support efforts to prevent a vacuum, including during meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
Lebanon is also insisting that Israel evacuate the Ali al-Taher hills and hand them over to the Lebanese Army, alongside the establishment of a monitoring post there with a predominantly US presence.
Israel has refused to hand the area to the army and wants the Lebanese request placed on the agenda of an eighth round of negotiations, which Rome would host for a third time. No date has yet been set.
The ministerial source said Washington, as sponsor of the framework agreement, is responsible for setting up the date. The United States is currently pressing Israel to agree to expand the “pilot zones,” he added.
But US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee’s statement that Israeli forces would remain in the south until the Lebanese Army becomes strong offered little grounds for optimism, the source said. Israel has continued targeting areas retaken in the south, preventing the Lebanese Army from deploying there, and has yet to agree to a verification mechanism to ensure areas are free of Hezbollah weapons and fighters.
A Western diplomat said Lebanon’s friends, particularly several European countries, have begun questioning why Trump has not followed through on commitments he made to Aoun during their Washington summit.
Concerns over a possible UN vacuum in the south are expected to feature prominently in Arab and European discussions with Trump and senior US officials.
The diplomat said Lebanon’s allies had little choice but to support Aoun and Salam’s government in strengthening the state’s position vis-à-vis Hezbollah, questioning what the seventh round of negotiations had achieved.
He argued that Lebanon could not afford to postpone implementation of the framework agreement until after Israel’s Knesset elections.
The ministerial source accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of continuing to bulldoze towns and systematically destroy homes on the pretext of eliminating remaining Hezbollah military infrastructure. He said Netanyahu was primarily seeking to push Lebanon into abandoning the negotiations and boycotting the eighth round unless Israeli attacks ceased.
Aoun, however, remains committed to negotiations and will not be drawn into what the source described as Netanyahu’s strategy. In the source’s view, Netanyahu accepted the framework agreement under US pressure but has avoided implementing it ahead of the Israeli elections.
The source also pointed to parliament’s third renewal of confidence in Salam’s government as evidence that a majority of lawmakers remained committed to the framework agreement and to the principle that weapons should be held exclusively by the state.
He nevertheless warned that Lebanon’s worsening cost-of-living crisis could put the government at odds with much of the population unless it finds ways to ease pressure on low-income households — something that would require financial assistance from Arab and international partners.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, continues to insist on retaining its weapons and rejects the framework agreement. The group was surprised by the renewed confidence vote in Salam’s government, particularly after Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Gebran Bassil unexpectedly proposed it at the end of parliament’s questioning of the government.
Hezbollah left the chamber before voting began.
The group has also rejected local and Arab mediation efforts urging it to hand over an initial batch of offensive weapons as long as it stays committed not to respond to Israeli attacks.
The source underlined that such a move would open the way for Hezbollah to join the state project rather than remain isolated, particularly as it bets on an Iranian-US memorandum of understanding whose implementation reached an impasse, compounded by Washington’s refusal to link Lebanon to the Iranian track.
